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This is an interesting time for politics in the African American community. The names of two black elected officials are being thrown about as possible rivals to Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti. And, up the hill from city hall, fears are being expressed that demographic trends threaten African American representation on the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors.
This may sound like the most inside kind of speculation. Garcetti isn’t up for re-election until 2017, and demography won’t make itself felt until even later in the decade. Drought, earthquake or an unbelievable El Nino could make LA politics irrelevant by then. But the speculation tells something about the current state of Los Angeles.
First, there are Mayor Garcetti and the two African American officials, Los Angeles County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas and City Council President Herb Wesson.
Garcetti is receiving increasing scrutiny and criticism by the news media. While favored to win a second term, he is working hard to assure it, accumulating funds for the campaign. A fund-raising stop in Washington, reported by Peter Jamison of the Los Angeles Times, drew some of the criticism.
Wesson, whose control of the legislative body gives him clout approaching that of Garcetti, has been speaking out on major issues such as neighborhood representation, homelessness and race. Wesson, wrote the Times’ David Zahniser, “spent the last 10 days sounding like a mayor.” Just doing my job, said Wesson, who reminded Zahniser that he has already endorsed Garcetti for another term. Not so shy was Ridley-Thomas, who also sounded like a mayoral candidate at a recent event, when he spoke out about municipal failures on homelessness, excessive police force and income inequality. Has he ruled out a run for mayor in 2017? “No,” he told Zahniser.
Some African American political activists, who are concerned about a drop in the African American population, might greet a candidacy by either of them with enthusiasm. For a steady decline in African American population could mean a loss of black representation on the city council and board of supervisors.
Alan Clayton, a longtime expert on minority representation and redistricting, analyzed the demographic threat. In an article for the San Gabriel Valley Tribune and the Daily News, Clayton noted how in a recent Los Angeles City Council race an unsung Latina, Ana Cubas, finished a surprising close second to the winner, State Sen. Curren Price, an African American who was backed by elected officials, unions and other power players in the South Los Angeles 9th District. Cubas’ showing reflected the fast growing Latino population in an area that was once heavily black.
Clayton said the vote could be a sign of the difficulties African Americans may face in holding the 2nd supervisorial seat now occupied by Ridley Thomas, whose term expires in 2020.
The district, which includes South Los Angeles, Compton and Inglewood, has a declining black population. In 2011, Clayton said, 36 percent of the voting age population was black, 34 percent Latino, 17.5 percent white and 10.4 percent Asian American. By the 2020 election, Clayton said, the voting age Latino population will reach 38 percent and the black population will drop to about 32 percent.
For African Americans, a solution to this dilemma is to expand the five-member board of supervisors to seven members, as envisioned by a state constitutional amendment proposed by State Sen. Tony Mendoza, an Artesia Democrat.
But, as is the case with county supervisors around the state, the Los Angeles board has opposed it, the supervisors fearing their power would be diluted. Better, they said, to be one of five than one of seven. The white majority voted against it while Ridley-Thomas and Hilda Solis, a Latina, abstained.
Expansion of the board would do much to make it more representative of the county’s population, perhaps making possible the election of another Latino, retention of a black and a chance for an Asian American to be elected. Accomplishing this would likely touch off a multi-ethnic election battle but it probably would give the county a more diverse board than we have today.
