Another way of looking at the jobs report

NYT's Dave Leonhardt says that the payroll data, which shows a gain of 200,000 jobs for December, may actually be understating the strength of the recovery.

The Labor Department conducts two surveys each month, one of households and one of businesses. The business survey produces the widely cited number on job changes -- 200,000 in December. The household survey, although usually more volatile, can sometimes provide a more accurate estimate at turning points. It often captures jobs at new companies that are not included in the business survey. Over the past six months, the household survey shows an average monthly gain of about 230,000, compared with a gain of only 142,000 in the business survey. Normal population growth means that the economy needs to add between 125,000 and 150,000 a month to keep unemployment from rising. If the household survey is really the more accurate one, the good news on jobs may well continue, complicating a central point in the Republican case against Mr. Obama. On the other hand, some of the recent strength comes from the restocking of warehouses, which will not continue.

Meanwhile, Matthew Yglesias points out how much of the employment growth has been concentrated among college graduates. Politically, that might not be such great news for the president, who is pinning his reelection hopes on blue-collar portions of Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The percentage of college graduates in those areas is not especially high.