Developers are proceeding with eight spec warehouse buildings totaling about 4.8 million square feet, which is encouraging news for a region that had a glut of empty space at the end of 2008. Warehouses sound boring, but they're a great indicator of whether more or less merchandise is going through the logistics pipeline. More warehouse projects suggest that consumers are buying more stuff. From the WSJ:
"You build spec if the demand is there and the supply is minimal," says Johannson Yap, chief investment officer for First Industrial. "When you meet the market at the right time, you can achieve pretty good rents." The Inland Empire--the country's seventh-largest warehouse market with just under 400 million square feet--still is much cooler than it was during the boom years. In 2006, for example, developers added 64 speculative projects with a total of 25.8 million square feet, according to Jones Lang. This year, leasing appears to be on pace to beat last year's volume of about 31 million square feet, with big leases being signed by companies like Hewlett-Packard Co. and scooter-maker Razor USA LLC.
In the new UCLA forecast, senior economist Jerry Nickelsburg makes note of the Inland Empire's improved picture:
Inland California has finally begun to grow. By examining the employment numbers in some detail together with trade and housing data we find that while the news for Inland California is good, there remains a long road ahead. In some sense the employment numbers for Inland California may not be surprising. Unemployment rates above 15% lead to falling wages on the one hand, and entrepreneurship on the other. Eventually a bottom is reached and the economy turns around.
How much it's turning is the question. UCLA's national forecast for next year is tepid at best, with overall growth in the sub-2 percent range.