Gingrich with a 38%-17% lead over Romney?

The NYT's Nate Silver says the new Rasmussen poll could be an outlier - and it's true that Rasmussen isn't always considered the most reliable. Still, it points to Romney's inability in poll after poll to get beyond the 15-25 percent mark. For what it's worth: Intrade is giving Romney a 51.5 percent chance of winning the nomination, down sharply from just a few weeks ago. Gingrich is at 36 percent. The Romney folks have to be really nervous.