Early estimates point to solid holiday shopping season

Retail sales for November and December rose about 3.8 percent from a year ago, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, which is a bit better than the group's 3.5 percent forecast in September. Still, it's shy of the 4.1 percent gain in 2010. From the WSJ:

Tepid sales forecasts for November and December persisted even after record-setting sales over Thanksgiving weekend, when retailers used earlier store openings on Black Friday to drive traffic. The first two weeks of December saw the deepest and longest shopping lull since 2000, renewing concerns that Black Friday had just pulled sales forward and that shoppers were done. But as consumers began piling back into stores in the days leading up to Christmas, the National Retail Federation and several other groups raised their sales estimates for the season.

Internet sales continued to grow sharply - $35.3 billion, according to comScore, a 15 percent increase from 2010. The assessments will undoubtedly vary among analysts, but overall the numbers look solid, if not spectacular. For retailers, of course, the big question is whether clearance prices during the closing days were so low that they ate into margins - and earnings. We'll know more on that front next month when the chains report quarterly results.