Sluggish traffic coming into Port of L.A.

Cargo entering the port last month was flat compared with a year earlier, another sign of caution by retailers coming into the holiday season. In August, inbound shipments were off almost 6 percent. The lukewarm port activity is at odds with decent holiday forecasts (sales increases in the 2.5 percent to 3 percent range). From the WSJ:

Dick Steinke, executive director of the Port of Long Beach, says shipping volumes have posted two consecutive months of declines, and he's anticipating a double-digit drop for September. The last time the port experienced no peak was during the height of the recession in 2009, he says. Before that, the phenomenon was unprecedented. Rail companies and other shippers are reporting similar news, as retailers head into their most important season with lean inventories and a frugal outlook. When it comes to the holidays, shoppers typically find a way to splurge. But retailers' chastened outlook, and their apparent willingness to forgo sales to avoid getting stuck with unsold goods, offers a sobering read on the state of the U.S. consumer. "The concern is obviously that consumer confidence is weak," says Mr. Steinke.

It's possible that retailers are just being careful with their orders, focusing on promotional items and closely monitoring what's selling and what isn't (retailers over-ordered during the recession and then had to clear inventory with excessive markdowns). That said, sluggish activity can't be considered a great sign. One encouraging note: Outbound container traffic was up 26.6 percent. (September numbers are not yet out at the Port of Long Beach.)