Think the economy isn't so hot now? See what happens after a 7.8 quake

The southern section of the San Andreas Fault hasn't ruptured for more than 300 years, which is really bad news because it makes a sizable shaker roughly 150 years overdue. All of which got analysts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics wondering how such a disaster would affect the regional economy. Clearly, there's a lot of guesswork surrounding such projections - and frankly, there's only so much that government and industry can do in preparing for such a calamity. But the exercise can be useful in at least identifying some of the most obvious vulnerabilities. From the report:

The county with the greatest exposure as a percent of its total businesses, employment, and wages is San Bernardino, with 96 percent of its businesses, employees, and wages located in the very strong or severe shaking zones in the modeled earthquake. Riverside County is at risk for the next greatest exposure, with 75 percent of all businesses in the very strong or severe shaking zones. Los Angeles and Orange counties both have 73 percent of their businesses, employees, and wages located in the very strong to severe shaking zones. Imperial County overlies a portion of the southern San Andreas Fault, but has relatively little exposure in the scenario analyzed here, as the earthquake's waves are expected to radiate towards the northwest, away from Imperial County.

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The potential economic consequences to employers and workers in southern California are widespread and are likely to have an effect on the state economy and, in turn, the national economy because of the far-reaching economic ties between firms and industries in California and beyond. This strong relationship between the southern California economy and the rest of the world is demonstrated by the large percentage of international shipments that come through the Los Angeles and Long Beach ports--more than 23 percent of the total U.S. value of goods passed through them in 2009, making it the largest U.S. port district.

Here's the breakout of potential losses in L.A. County:
--Proportion of total affected employment: 57.6%
--Affected business establishments (in strong shaking zone): 98,290
--Affected business establishments (in destructive quaking zone): 188,750
--Affected employment (in strong shaking zone): 922,000
--Affected employment (in destructive shaking zone): 1.7 million

The report estimates that a 7.8 quake would result in an economic loss of $213 billion, which at first blush seems on the low side.