January's unemployment rate fell to 9 percent, from 9.4 percent the previous month. It's at the lowest since April 2009. But the economy only added 36,000 jobs, which was way below expectations and not even enough to handle the new workers coming into the market, much less all the folks who already are looking for employment. Frankly, the report is so weird, so bifurcated, that you'll probably hear lots of explanations, starting with the weather. From the WSJ:
The private sector has been adding jobs for a year, though the pace hasn't been enough to return the unemployment rate anywhere close to pre-recession levels. Instead, companies have been increasing productivity by squeezing more output from their workers. That can be good for profits, but ultimately economists expect firms will have to hire more workers to keep pace with expanding demand.
December's payroll numbers were revised upward to show an increase of 121,000 jobs, from a previous estimate of 103,000. Here's the BLS report. More later.
*From Dave Leonhardt:
I guess I still expect the job market to improve considerably this year. Businesses are profitable, stock prices are rising, and consumer spending has picked up. As you've noted, a lot of other economic indicators -- including some that track the job market in other ways, like initial jobless claims -- look better than the monthly employment reports have. Even so, the chances that we're in for many more months of little job growth are uncomfortably high.
From Floyd Norris:
You can call the one-month change in unemployment rate artificial if you want, but I think the overall decline is amazing, from 10.1 percent in October 2009 to 9.0 percent now. Some of that may be statistical, but a lot is not.