Does Valentine's Day stimulate the economy?

All those flowers, candies, gift cards, and restaurant meals add up to almost $16 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. But here's the crucial question: Would you have spent that money on flowers, candies, etc. at some other point in the year if there were no such thing as Valentine's Day? If the answer is yes, than the holiday isn't much of an economic stimulant. If the answer is no, than it is. From The Atlantic's Derek Thomson:

If this is starting to sound familiar, it's only because Washington has been using stimulus policy to create it own little Valentine's Days for the economy in the last two years. We had a housing tax credit to concentrate home purchases and a Cash-for-Clunkers program to move auto purchases. In December, we got a one-year payroll tax holiday (that word ain't no coincidence) with a special one-year business tax credit to encourage families and businesses to get into the holiday spirit in 2011 and spend, spend, spend.

Some economists will argue that all these Valentine's gifts to the economy do nothing more than steal demand from the past and future. They might be right. Thinking back to February 14, some Valentine's gifts would have happened anyway ... but some couples really are inspired by the invention of Valentine's Day. Can you honestly say that the mythology of the roses and rom-coms and the chocolate rabbits never inspired you to splurge on a nicer hotel room, or order an extra bottle of wine or dessert?

By the way, the $16 billion that's spent on V-Day doesn't mean much in the context of the nation's $14-trillion economy. But among certain businesses (florists come quickly to mind), Feb. 14 represents a big chunk of the entire revenue year. In that regard, it is an economic stimulant.