Sizing up governor's race

Looks pretty even at this point. Meg Whitman has a substantial money advantage, but she's bound to slip up along the way. Jerry Brown has, at best, a mixed political record, but he's running in a blue state and knows a thing or two about campaigning. Whitman looks more energized then Brown, but she's also a political dilettante and voters might be reluctant to have another one of those in the state house. Whitman proposes tax cuts for businesses, which seems like a non-starter, while Brown can't ignore his union constituents, even though they're at the core of Sacramento's problems. Whitman must figure out how to attract centrist voters after a primary campaign in which she all but abandoned them. Brown must figure out how to attract centrist voters who still think of him as Governor Moonbeam. Whitman must show that she's not another Arnold Schwarzenegger; Brown must show that he's not another Gray Davis. As I said, it's a toss up - and the limited polling thus far would suggest as much.

Of course, no election operates in a vacuum, and this one is certain to be influenced by what happens in Sacramento this summer. Schwarzenegger is threatening to hold up the new budget if lawmakers refuse to include pension and budget reform. Here's what he told Politico:

"The atmosphere has changed," Schwarzenegger said. "People understand that they have to lay off their workers or they don't have the money for their family. What they don't like is when there is a certain group that doesn't like to make the sacrifices." Schwarzenegger said he "will not sign" a budget without pension reform. "I will hold up the budget. It doesn't matter how long it drags--into the summer or fall or into November or after my administration--and I think the people will support that," he said.

I'm still not sure pension and budget reform, in particular, will galvanize an electorate that's still looking for simplistic answers to immensely complicated problems. So both candidates will have to decide how deeply they want to delve into the budget madness. Frankly, it's in their best interest to keep a distance - Whitman can avoid detailing how she intends to break up the Sacramento logjam (a good thing since she'll have no more success than Schwarzenegger), while Brown can sidestep the prospect of additional budget cuts. Of course, there is only so much tap dancing the two candidates can do. If a budget deal isn't wrapped up by September and the state starts handing out IOUs, there will be no place to hide.