Follow LA Observed on Twitter here
The homebuyers tax credit runs out a week from today, and the big boost in March new home sales seems to reflect that. April's numbers are likely to be similar. As for May and beyond? Some analysts expect sales to take a significant dip - not unlike what happened last year before Congress extended the tax credit program. Credit Suisse analyst Dan Oppenheim believes that buyers are just shifting the timing of purchases. Others are a little less concerned. From Real Time Economics:
Behind the month-to-month "noise" in sales, the March data along with the upward revisions reveal an encouraging trend that reinforces the conclusion that the housing sector is on the mend. However, one should not lose sight of the reality that the March sales level is more than 40% below its 47-year average and is lower than annual sales in any year before 2009. -David Resler, Nomura Global Economics
Mark Lacter created the LA Biz Observed blog in 2006. He posted
until the day before his death on Nov. 13, 2013.