UCLA sees bipolar economy

Not much change in the Anderson Forecast's national outlook: Slow-growth and high unemployment are likely well into next year. Actually, employment growth will be so slow that by the end of 2012, the U.S. will still be two million jobs behind 2007 levels. That's the scary part: Nowhere near enough jobs in the pipeline. For California, economist Jerry Nickelsburg expects little or no growth this year, but some improvement by the middle of 2011. He also sees double-digit unemployment until 2012. From the report:

Our forecast for the next three years remains basically unchanged from last December. Slow growth in 2010 is expected as government and construction continue to restructure and a reticent consumer nationwide does not boost imports to levels which would re-vitalize the logistics industry.Even though we expect there to be net job gains in 2010, the average number of jobs for the year will remain slightly less than the average for 2009 and unemployment will hang high for some time.

The keys to recovery, say the UCLA folks, are the same as they've been for some time: a pickup in spending, exports of manufactured and agricultural goods, increased public works construction, and increased investment in business equipment and software. From their lips...