Being under-employed

In some ways this is a much better gauge of the labor situation than the monthly unemployment rate. It includes not only folks currently out of work, but those who are labeled "discouraged" (they've given up looking for a job and therefore are not part of the count). Also included are those who have been forced to take part-time jobs. Once those numbers are included, the rate for L.A. County is expected to peak at 18 percent (the straight unemployment rate for May was 11.6 percent). The Los Angeles Economic Roundtable goes through the under-employment problem, as well as other economic issues, in a new study out this morning. This is a long and thoughtful document (here's the link). It's especially timely, since some of the recommendations involve holding onto welfare-to-work and health care programs that are caught up in the current budget battles. The hard (and little-discussed) truth that becomes quite apparent from this study is that poor people, sick people and old people have the most at stake in the impasse - and none of them makes up strong voting blocs.

Since 1989, poverty rates for residents (age 25 years and over) in the County and the State without a high school diploma have been more than twice as high as overall poverty rates in their respective region. Comparatively, poverty rates for residents with a college degree have been 60 percent less than overall poverty rates.

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When households lose the income and the social inclusion provided by employment, they are more likely to sink into poverty, require public assistance, and, experience family dysfunctions. The data about poverty and need for human services that has been reviewed indicates that impacts of the current recession are likely to include:

• An 18.5 percent poverty rate in Los Angeles County with nearly 2 million people in poverty, and 17.0 percent poverty rate in California with nearly 6.7 million people in poverty.

• Poverty rates for adults without a high school diploma that are twice as high as the overall poverty rate.

• 1.5 million impoverished residents in Los Angeles County and 5 million impoverished residents in California without cash aid if current enrollment rates in public assistance programs continue.

• The Medi-Cal Only caseload is projected to peak at 1,876,000 residents in Los Angeles County and 6,600,000 residents in California.

• Los Angeles County's Food Stamp caseload is projected to increase 17 percent to 786,000 people, leaving 1,175,000 impoverished residents without Food Stamps, and California's Food Stamp caseload is projected to increase 21 percent to if the current enrollment rates do not increase.