About the jobless report

The headline is that L.A. County unemployment rose again last month, to 7.9 percent from 7.5 percent in July - and from 5 percent from August 2007. That gives L.A. its highest jobless rate in 12 years. Perhaps more revealing is the separate payroll survey, which measures the number of jobs in the system. Besides a big drop in state and local government employment – some of it seasonal - was a continuing decline in the retail sector. About 1,000 jobs were lost in L.A. County from July, but the drop from August 2007 was 11,500. Breaking out those losses, there were the obvious laggards - auto dealers, home furnishings and building material stores. Also, clothing store employment is way down - as is the category of book, periodical and music stores (down 13.7 percent). The retail numbers are falling so sharply - and for so long - that some economists wonder whether there's more going on than the housing mess and loss of consumer confidence. This would have huge ramifications on any number of fronts, not the least of which is the loss of revenue that local governments receive from taxable sales. Anyway, none of this is likely to improve for at least six months, probably more, as the effects of the housing and financial crises are sorted out. By the way, this is likely to be a very ugly holiday shopping season, with market research firm TNS Retail Forward projecting that U.S. sales will be a paltry 1.5 percent for the fourth quarter. (LABJ, EDD press release, WSJ)