WSJ survey shows recession

More than seven in 10 respondents to the WSJ survey of economists say that the U.S. is now in a recession. That's a huge shift from when the Journal survey was last done in early February. Last Friday's employment report, which showed a loss of 63,000 jobs in February, clearly changed a lot of minds (though not the folks at the UCLA Anderson Forecast, who still expect a no-recession economy). Twenty-nine of 55 respondents said they expect the economy to contract in the current quarter and 25 expect it to do so in the second.

The economists also expressed growing concerns that a 2008 recession could be worse than both the 2001 and 1990-91 downturns. They put the odds of a deeper downturn at an average 48%, up from 39% in the previous survey. Mark Nielson of MacroEcon Global Advisors said that "we recognize the previous two recessions were mild and, if a recession does occur, it is likely to be slightly worse than the previous two."

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Most forecasters expect a recovery to begin in the second half of this year, as the government's stimulus package and the Fed's interest-rate cuts begin to spur the economy. By the end of the year, the economists expect inflation still to be hovering at an uncomfortably high 2.7%, raising the question of when the Fed will start raising rates.