Recession odds increasing

Economists in the latest WSJ forecasting survey now put the chances at 49 percent, up from 40 percent in the January survey and 23 percent last June. If there is a downturn, they give 39 percent odds that it would be worse than the past two recessions, which were relatively short and mild. The economists were especially critical of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke for being overly attentive to the stock market. On average, the economists predicted the nation's gross domestic product will expand at a 0.6 percent annual rate in the first three months of this year. For all practical purposes, that's no growth. "While it is a close call, we do not think the economy will fall into a recession," wrote Ethan Harris, who was the top ranked forecaster for 2007.