Countrywide's odds: 61-39

Now we have Banc of America analyst Robert Lacoursiere upping his rating on the troubled mortgage lender to "neutral" from "sell." That might not sound like much, but at this point Countrywide will take whatever it can get. In his research report, Lacoursiere said that the company's problems were overblown, although he does expect the volume of loan originations to decline (not a big surprise). All told, he says there's a 39 percent chance that the company will be forced to come apart in what he calls a "liquidity-induced distressed asset/breakup sale." Of course, that means there's a 61 percent chance that Countrywide will stay whole (those computer models are obviously programmed for rounding off). Wall Street appears to like its odds, at least for today: The stock is up almost 11 percent with an hour to go.