Figuring out foreclosure numbers

Good luck. Since the government does not track any aspect of the foreclosure process, several private firms are left to post their own numbers, based on their own methodologies. And, not surprisingly, they're all over the map. Irvine-based RealtyTrac’s numbers are higher than anybody else’s, but other real estate analysts are discrediting them. You see, RealtyTrac counts every step in the foreclosure process separately, which means that the same property could be listed as three, four or even more foreclosures. From the LAT:

"No one is measuring the truth," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com. "This is a problem when formulating policy." Zandi takes issue not only with RealtyTrac for numbers he says are too high but also with DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla, Calif.-based research company frequently cited in The Times, for numbers he says are too low. DataQuick and RealtyTrac draw their numbers directly from filings in county recorders' offices.

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John Karevoll, chief analyst for DataQuick, said Zandi, like RealtyTrac, was miscounting. "You tell Mark Zandi we will go toe to toe with them, address by address, foreclosure by foreclosure. My numbers are right. I know they're right," Karevoll said.

One basic problem: no one can seem to agree what constitutes foreclosure because there are many steps in the process. Even when a property is about to wind up in the hands of the lender, it doesn’t necessarily mean the household will be forced out on the street. Auctions can be postponed, mortgages refinanced. None of this would be that big a deal, except for the fact that these numbers are getting widespread media coverage and can, in fact, influence public policy. If the numbers are wacky, what does that mean for public policy?