Handicapping 'Dreamgirls'

It was a challenge to get a ticket on Christmas Day, when sell-out crowds prompted some theaters to add late shows. The musical's one-day take of $8.7 million (that's in only 852 theaters) beat studio expectations and is likely to generate considerable word-of-mouth just in time for award season. But in his online Gold Derby blog, the LAT's Tom O'Neil has doubts on whether the musical starring Eddie Murphy, Beyonce Knowles and Jamie Foxx has a chance to take home Best Picture. He points to reviews that were respectful but not over-the-top raves - and even more important, the older and mostly-male Academy voters.

As one of Hollywood's top studio chiefs told me a few weeks ago, "Brokeback Mountain" lost the Oscar for best picture last year because of anti-gay prejudice. Not hatred. Hollywood is obviously a gay-friendly place. It's just that voters — the vast majority of whom are straight, of course — didn't see it as their film. The same thing could happen with "Dreamgirls" among the mostly white voters — let's be honest. They might like the film, but pull back a bit emotionally from it because they don't feel like they belong amidst an all-black cast. Let's not forget how, up until the recent joint wins by Denzel Washington and Halle Berry, only one African-American ever won a lead-acting Oscar: Sidney Poitier ("Lilies of the Field"). No all-black film has ever won best picture. One all-black film is tied as the biggest loser in Oscar history ("The Color Purple").

Of course, a nomination for Best Picture is all but certain. Also considered locks are "The Departed" and "Letters from Iwo Jima."