Deciphering holiday sales

"Disappointing" is the word being bandied about this morning. Visa USA said sales rose 6.5 percent in November and December, down from its initial forecast of 7.5 percent. In 2005, sales rose 8.3 percent. But the early numbers still point to 6 and 7 percent increases over a year ago, which is pretty much what many analysts had projected. Also don't forget the post Christmas action - as well as shoppers redeeming all those gift cards (gift cards are often not included in the mix until shoppers actually do something with them). And different forecasters base their numbers on different components. Point is, the doom and gloom talk may be premature - especially for Socal, which often does a percentage point or two better the national numbers. Consider this nugget from the WSJ:

Last week, Hermès at South Coast Plaza, in Costa Mesa sold a $140,000 Birkin bag with a diamond clasp while Pioneer Electronics sold out of its stock of $1,500 Blu-ray videodisc players. Six thousand shoppers blitzed through a Tiffany & Co. store on Wednesday and Thursday, while Louis Vuitton was among the busiest stores in the plaza, according to the center's executive director of marketing, Debra Gunn Downing.

Of course, sales are one thing - profits quite another. And the concern this year is that retailers marked down too much too soon. Wall Street has picked up on the prospect of lackluster earnings - in this morning's trading, retailers fell the most among two dozen industry groups in the S&P 500, losing 0.5 percent.