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Raphael Sonenshein, the executive director of the Pat Brown Institute for Public Affairs at California State Los Angeles, writes at the Jewish Journal about what he sees interesting in the poll the institute recently conducted of likely LA voters. It's not just that the poll found the race for mayor all tied up — although there was that. The Pat Brown Institute's first attempt at polling was conducted by Susan Pinkus, the former director of the Los Angeles Times Poll, and Sonenshein says "I wanted our poll to illuminate broader trends in the local electorate." Here's an excerpt of his piece.
Of the likely voters in the PBI poll, 42 percent were white, 12 percent were African American, 29 percent were Latino, and nine percent were Asian American. Consider that when Richard Riordan defeated Mike Woo in 1993, whites cast 72 percent of all votes, and Latinos cast only eight percent. Riordan’s election was the last time that a Republican had a real chance for the city’s top job, when Republican voters cast more than 30 percent of the votes. In the PBI sample, only 13 percent of likely voters identified as Republican. This is a Democratic town, with 56 percent of the likely voters calling themselves Democrats. (An estimated 6 percent of the city, and a larger share of its voters, are Jewish, who are disproportionately Democratic, but their numbers were too small in the PBI poll for analysis.)
We often hear negative things about the city and about the Los Angeles Unified School District (LAUSD). We should also wonder how people feel in their own neighborhoods, because that’s their day-to-day experience. Only 40 percent of voters polled like the direction of the city, and 22 percent approve of the LAUSD, but within this sprawling metropolis, residents are more pleased with their own neighborhoods and even their local schools, than with the “city” and the “school district.” Voters said their own local schools are in good shape (37 percent favorable), just as they thought their neighborhoods are doing well (52 percent. This has probably been true in the past, but we have tended not to ask.As Latinos’ numbers and influence continue to rise, they are feeling optimistic. Nearly half (44 percent) think the city is going in the right direction, compared to only 29 percent of African-Americans, who have seen their hard-earned political gains jeopardized by a declining population share. Latinos think that Antonio Villaraigosa has done a good job as mayor, giving him a 62 percent approval rating, compared to his overall 50 percent approval. Latinos were much more likely to give the beleaguered LAUSD positive ratings than either whites or African-Americans. Latinos favor giving the city’s mayor greater authority over the school district to a significantly greater degree than either whites or African-Americans. As a group on their way up, Latinos can see a better future in front of them, and their attitudes toward public institutions are starting to reflect that optimism.
Latinos prefer Eric Garcetti over Wendy Greuel (48-36 percent), Dennis Zine over Ron Galperin for controller (29-18 percent), and Mike Feuer over Carmen Trutanich for city attorney (31-23 percent).
Whites are not as optimistic as Latinos about the direction of the city, but among all groups, whites are the most satisfied with how things are going in their neighborhoods (65 percent, compared to 31 percent for African-Americans and 42 percent for Latinos). White voters support Greuel (53-42 percent), Zine (30-21 percent), and Feuer (39-23 percent). African-Americans, whose numbers in the sample are too low for full analysis, favor Greuel by a 2-1 margin, and also Zine and Trutanich.
The sleeper for Greuel is a growing gender gap, with women supporting her by 13 points and men backing Garcetti by the same margin. A surge of women voters or a high black turnout might ensure victory for Greuel, just as a mobilization of Latino voters, who tend to be late deciders, would do it for Garcetti.
