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The latest memo from the Steve Cooley campaign quotes senior consultant Kevin Spillane analyzing the late vote count in the Attorney General race and how having the Republican Party affiliation by his name hurt Cooley in Democratic Los Angeles County. Cooley holds a 28,858-vote lead over Kamala Harris based on county updates not yet reflected on the Secretary of State's website, Spillane says.
Of the 2.3 million ballots that remained to be processed after Election Night, there are now less than a million to be counted. There are a slightly larger number of ballots left to be counted in counties carried by Cooley than in counties carried by Harris. The key to the outcome is the final percentage - the margin of victory - for each candidate in these counties. Some of these counties went for Cooley by more than 20 points while others went 2 to 1 for Harris.For example, the margin between the candidates in LA County has been a key to the closeness of this race. There has been surprise in some quarters that Cooley did not carry Los Angeles County as its District Attorney. The very simple explanation for that is the huge difference between a partisan election and a non-partisan election. Cooley has been elected and re-elected D.A. as an individual.
The moment the word "Republican" appeared on the ballot next to Steve Cooley's name in heavily Democratic Los Angeles County it was a huge anchor that dragged him down, exacerbated by the collapse of the GOP ticket in the final week of the campaign. Polling released just before the election showed that the Republican Party in California was viewed negatively by a 2 to 1 margin by the state's electorate. The November 2nd election results certainly confirm the validity of that poll.
It is actually Cooley's strength in Los Angeles County that is one of the major factors why he is the top Republican vote-getter statewide, the Attorney General's contest is so competitive and Steve still has a real chance to be the only Republican elected to a statewide office.
Continued after the jump.
Cooley is losing Los Angeles County by 13 points. In contrast, Meg Whitman lost LA County by 30 points, Carly Fiorina lost it by 29 points, Abel Maldonado lost it by 28 points, Insurance Commissioner candidate Mike Villines lost it by 32 points, GOP Controller Nominee Tony Strickland lost it by 33 points and Treasurer candidate Mimi Walters lost LA by 37 points.Steve Cooley actually cut the LA County margin of loss by less than half for the top of the Republican ticket, and by 20 points or more compared to the rest of the GOP statewide ticket.
Steve would not be competitive if he had not also performed strongly in the rest of the state. For example, Steve is the only Republican statewide nominee to carry Sacramento County. Steve was the top GOP vote-getter by significant margins in San Diego, Kern, Fresno and countless other key counties.
But given Los Angeles County's massive number of votes, it is Cooley's relative strength, even as a Republican, in his home county that has kept him in the game.
We are grateful to be ahead and are cautiously optimistic. However, we expect the vote counting to be close enough that the outcome may not be decided until Thanksgiving or even the deadline of December 3rd for counties to submit their final vote tallies to the Secretary of State's office. We will keep you updated with new developments.