Instant analysis

Democratic strategist Chris Lehane says Mayor Villaraigosa's school reform victory tonight in Sacramento show his political juice, but calls it "a very short-term win [and] an extraordinary long-term political gamble that tells us a great deal about who the Mayor is as a person." The mayor is pictured after the vote with Sen. Gloria Romero and Speaker Fabian Núñez. Lehane:

As of these votes, the Mayor has effectively planted his political flag on improving the LAUSD. If and when Antonio runs for statewide office, he will be measured by what direction the LAUSD has gone in since the bill was passed – as measured by test scores, college matriculation, safety, etc. Even a cursory review of the state of public education in major urban communities reveals that the likelihood of publicly perceived success will be enormously challenging. Since the time of Horace Mann, student achievement in public education has always trailed the higher expectations of the public. It is not surprising that public education has impacted the political fortunes of many mayors aspiring to higher office.

Making this challenge even harder is the fact that the bill, which ended up being a heavily compromised version of the original reform legislation, does not even confer upon the Mayor the powers he would need to effectively take over the schools – the type of powers Mayor Michael Bloomberg was given in tackling the New York City public schools system or that Mayor Richard Daley retains in Chicago.

A basic principle in politics is that when and where possible you should set your own expectations bar at a level that you know you can exceed. By linking his political fortunes to the LAUSD, the Mayor has established an expectations bar with no guarantee of success. In short, the Mayor’s political fortunes could very well rise and fall with the test scores of more than 700,000 students....

Interestingly, precisely because the Mayor made this gamble because it was the right thing to do, he may well have the political antidote to future attacks that could come his way if the LAUSD doesn’t show real improvement. He is the guy who had the guts to take on an issue that others would have ducked.

That's from the California Majority Report, the new Democratic website where the contributors include Los Angeles operatives John Shallman, Andre Pineda, Alan Arkatov, Bill Carrick, Larry Grisolano, Darry Sragow and Dave Rand, local electeds Lloyd Levine and Dario Frommer, ex-Daily News reporter Paul Hefner and honorary Angeleno-by-victory Ace Smith.

The only Democrats voting no were Mervyn Dymally and Jenny Oropeza; all Republicans voted no even though Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger backed the measure.

Earlier tonight:
AB 1381 passes 42-20

Photo: AP/Rich Pedroncelli