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Round two of the independent recall polls begins with the Field Poll today showing Davis behind 55%-40%. Bustamante is still ahead of Schwarzenegger 30%-25%, with McClintock at 13%. Soon I expect there will be another L.A. Times Poll, and one of those dubious KABC-Survey USA things, and maybe some others. Beware the partisan spin meisters, who base their critiques on whether they like the results or the source, and the non-partisan but still curiously inventive poll spinners. Polls are a snapshot valid, if at all, only on the days the questions were asked. Nothing more. They don't predict the outcome, and if these Field (or LAT) numbers differ from the last round, that implies nothing about the poll's integrity. This election cycle is moving fast, as political scientist Bruce Cain stressed in a good primer on recall polls (audio here) with Larry Mantle on KPCC Monday. Here is a quick analysis by Weintraub of the Field results. Also see Rough and Tumble for poll stories in six newspapers. The poll itself is here.
Also today: In his "Recall Madness" column in the L.A. Times today, Roy Rivenburg -- whose job it is to find the offbeat in the race -- seems to jab his fellow LAT recall writers.
Most political columnists ran out of original things to say a week after the recall began. Some are now recycling attack columns from 1978 and 1980, replacing the words "Proposition 13" and "Ronald Reagan" with "recall" and "Arnold Schwarzenegger," respectively. So far, the public hasn't caught on, even though one careless writer recently lambasted Proposition 13 for "chickening out of a televised debate with the other propositions."To save you the trouble of reading additional columns, here is a handy summary of their major themes:
Attack Schwarzenegger for not taking a position on the issues or, when he does take a position, attack that.
Tweak the Terminator for agreeing to just one candidate debate while conveniently not mentioning that Davis did the same thing when running against Bill Simon last November.
Criticize Schwarzenegger for having no political experience. Or, for a change of pace, criticize him for being just like every other politician.
If any reader of this newspaper spots an opinion column that breaks the pattern (i.e., the writer praises Schwarzenegger), be the first to e-mail us and you can choose a gift from our box of prizes.
He names no names of course. But it echoes some of the criticism I lodged last week about the LAT column lineup.
Updated with new links at 11:30 a.m.